$1.2 trillion in five months: what PwC's midyear outlook says about US deals

PwC's 2026 midyear deals outlook describes a US M&A market that is bigger by value and thinner by count. Here is what the report found and why it matters for anyone screening deals.

What PwC found

• Value nearly doubled. US M&A deal value reached about $1.2 trillion in the first five months of 2026, compared with $603 billion in the same period of 2025.
• Volume fell. PwC counted 4,653 deals, down about 4% from 4,851 a year earlier.
• Megadeals drove the gain. 39 deals of $5 billion or more were announced, more than 50% above the prior-year period, and their combined value rose to about $957 billion from $325 billion.
• Private equity has a backlog. PwC estimates that, at the current pace, clearing existing PE portfolio inventory would take close to nine years.
• Dealmaking is less tied to the macro picture. PwC describes buyers pursuing deals that hold up across economic scenarios rather than waiting for rate cuts, and notes that quality AI targets are getting scarce.

Why it matters for diligence

When value concentrates in fewer, larger deals, each decision carries more weight. A missed issue in a $5 billion transaction is a bigger problem than the same miss in a small one, and competitive processes give buyers less time to find it.

The backlog matters too. If sponsors hold companies longer before exiting, the period after close, when diligence usually stops, gets longer. That is when a new lien, an officer change or a lapsed registration can go unnoticed until the next board pack.